6 Feb, 2012
Can GOP ever win Latino vote?
Now that the Florida primary is good behind, it is important to take a longer demeanour at the conflict for the Latino opinion in the ubiquitous election. This flourishing voting confederation could be the determining cause if the formula infer as tighten as expected.
This is quite true in 5 representation states — Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona. President Barack Obama carried the initial 4 of these in 2008 and is planning a clever pull in Arizona this time.
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Responding to the GOP base, the Republican Party and its heading presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, may be incompetent to welcome extensive immigration remodel and reject oppressive right-wing, anti-immigrant rhetoric. So it’s formidable for Romney to make poignant advance among this important part of the U.S. electorate. It may good lean the personification margin to Obama — who won two-thirds of the Latino opinion in 2008.
I represented a immeasurable Latino race in Texas for the 26 years we served in the House. So we know this important domestic struggle. Here are several lessons going forward.
First, yet Romney prisoner the Cuban opinion in the Florida primary, this doesn’t meant the GOP can win Latino votes this fall. Unlike other Latino voters, Cuban-Americans are reliably Republican.
The immeasurable infancy of Latinos in other states, however, are not from Cuba. Many are from Mexico, as good as Central America and Puerto Rico. Even in Florida, there is now a poignant series of non-Cuban Latinos, who tend to opinion Democratic.
Second, presumption Romney is the Republican nominee, he has a lot of belligerent to make adult with Latinos after being pushed distant to the right on the immigration emanate during the early primaries and caucuses.
Many Latinos are culturally conservative, nationalistic and remarkably entrepreneurial. On paper, this sounds like fruitful domain for the GOP. But once Latinos have listened the GOP’s clever anti-immigrant rhetoric, they may good stop listening to anything else Republicans have to say.
Look at what’s happened so far.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry indeed said some essential things about immigration in an early debate. He spoke agreeably of the DREAM Act, which permits bootleg newcomer children to attend state colleges and compensate in-state tuition. He cursed the due blockade along the U.S.-Mexico limit as a terrible idea.
Perry fast had to backtrack when pounded by Romney and the GOP candidates, as good as successful regressive groups.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, in another early debate, upheld the horizon of warranted legalization — underneath which bootleg immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for a prolonged time, have families and jobs and have stayed out of rapist trouble, could request for citizenship after going to the end of the line and profitable a fine.
As shortly as he was pounded by the distant right for this essential proposal, Gingrich had to do behind flips to say he did not preference amnesty. He eventually had to behind divided from this approach.
Meanwhile, the Republican Legislature in Texas, in a high-profile action, recently refused to create additional Hispanic congressional districts. It did this even yet Latino communities accounted for most of the state’s race expansion in the decade, which gained Texas 4 new districts. This matter is still in the sovereign courts, but it is being closely monitored by Hispanic groups, who filed lawsuits severe the Legislature’s plan.
In addition, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer continues to be a lightning rod for the most xenophobic, anti-immigrant sentiments in the Republican Party.
So notwithstanding a good showing among the Cuban village in Florida, the Republican presidential hopeful starts in a low hole with Latino electorate nationally.
Can Republicans correct the damage?
Romney, for one, late in the Florida primary took a baby step on the theme of the DREAM Act. He said he would cruise a trail to citizenship for immature Latino bootleg immigrants now vital in the U.S., who determine to offer in our military. He will substantially have to move even serve on this emanate to win genuine support.
Romney will have to move off his tough position on immigration remodel if he is to make a convincing representation to Latino voters. Building a blockade and deporting 11 million people by “self-deportation” is not the answer. He may be deliberation relocating toward Gingrich’s strange position on warranted legalization. But any change would need to be most some-more than baby stairs to be credible.
The GOP must continue to showcase high-profile Republican officeholders, like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez. However, putting people like Rubio on radio as a orator won’t be adequate if the celebration army them into an ideological straitjacket on immigration reform.
Keep your eye on this important voting bloc. Right now, it’s advantage Obama.
Martin Frost (D-Texas) served in the House from 1979 to 2005 and was Democratic Caucus authority and conduct of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He is now an profession with Polsinelli Shughart.
